From Gametrailers
It looks like there’s a new service in the works called OnLive that aims to push graphics rendering to the server side. Allow me to explain why this pseudoutopian bullshit is not going to work in clear and simple terms.
First off, the whole thing relies on compressed streaming video. Can you imagine playing your games with the vsual quality of YouTube videos? Not appealing, to say the least. Aesthetics, though, are the least of our worries.
OnLive needs a 5 Mbit connection to deliver 720p video at playable framerates, and you will always have a reaction delay in the video equal to the length of a network roundtrip.
Allow me to math it up. A typical well-tuned game gets about 60 frames per second. How long does it take to get the depression of the mouse button to the CPU? Almost none. It’s a short hop over USB right into the hardware registers. It’s negligible, and yet gamers buy special gaming mice and keyboards left and right because even at these extreme optimization levels, the delays are noticable.
Now let’s take that button click and translate it to a packet, fire it over the network, have OnLive’s server handle it, render the frame, and pump the image back to us over our broadband connection. Even if we had a massive OC-48 trunk running directly into our home network, we’d experience a staggering performance hit.
Basically, we could have the fastest connection possible and our framerate would still be decimated. Sixty FPS? Hah. More like twelve. It’s not a question of processing power, it’s a simple function of the laws of nature. Light has a fixed travel speed, and that means a network roundtrip will never be faster than client-side rendering.
Needless to say, this will simply be unacceptable to most. So the question remains, is there a market for it at all?
Well, real-time server-side rendering has its place, and that place is embedded devices. Most 3G-capable phones are better off streaming video in than trying to render it because of their small screen resolutions and limited hardware capabilities, and complete incapacity for upgrades.
Netbooks make a little sense for the same reasons.
Laptops are iffy at best.
Desktops are right out.
There are exceptions to these. I imagine there might be some market for Mac and Linux gamers who don’t wish to dual-boot. The problem with this is, well, most Mac users aren’t gamers anyway, or already have consoles, and most Linux users either aren’t gamers or wouldn’t like OnLive anyway because of the DRM (I am here.).
This is an age of massive decentralization. A company like OnLive is simply thinking in the past, and I predict failure.